TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes31c2,875$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No72c2,453$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.894953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No57c2,284$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.594759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes32c1,359$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.642520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc1d…be30backed No69c996.03$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes26c947.52$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.961323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes45c942.1$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.595850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes30c718.21$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3617232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…a955backed Yes60c686.58$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed Yes27c583.29$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.043680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes56c566.18$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.272347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe485…f7eebacked No62c552.02$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c545.59$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.893060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Yes56c535$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de4…427cbacked No76c526.41$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f920backed Yes30c472.57$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No73c409.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.214261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No73c409.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.24452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No58c369.62$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.961952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2190…be6dbacked No71c283.5$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a3…3b6fbacked No40c282.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.791586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes19c264.14$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.439034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52dd…96d1backed Yes31c260.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes43c246.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.331822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes23c217.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332c…ae23backed No47c211.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed Yes27c209.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.69837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4455…99f2backed No43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes43c179.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.93729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes44c175.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.766341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No32c163.98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.932927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2cf…1901backed Yes31c163.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c159.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a75…2d39backed No66c152.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No53c147.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.847735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x193a…32c1backed Yes24c143.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ea…b603backed Yes37c123.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc299…b630backed Yes27c119.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…7db6backed Yes31c111$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9203…8c7ebacked Yes31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes24c101.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-45.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x084f…551ebacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No69c99.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c98.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.115327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf08a…3ae5backed Yes31c96.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7d…6746backed Yes46c93.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c90.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215117.6%9 W · 42 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-61.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No51c87.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.137462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No58c87.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No56c83.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.586357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…68b5backed Yes31c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes33c79.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.653737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes29c78.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.121315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c77.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.235949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf51…8a57backed Yes21c75.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes45c73.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No47c71.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes28c68.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6c…445fbacked No65c68.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes30c67.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes31c63.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No73c55.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.141070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed Yes40c52.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf7…d632backed No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No54c51.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.78887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+61.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd783…06b9backed No55c50.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b5…237abacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes41c47.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.391435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed No65c46.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed Yes39c43.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d7…a7fdbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No47c42.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.254932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee8…db0cbacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No66c38.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+203%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0479…80a2backed No69c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7e…c364backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8511645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9f…8bc1backed No46c34.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83a…c500backed Yes46c32.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a68…424fbacked Yes43c31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fb…dfbabacked No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed Yes59c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab7…5368backed Yes58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c25.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes54c25.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0604…882abacked No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce9…a7d6backed No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…68a6backed No69c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes54c22.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.371729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No66c22.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.76654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07aa…49c3backed No69c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x137d…d67dbacked No73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b4…9c0ebacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.