Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c7c612a166b1b7ba050889b1d5ba60c123a53a042913f820d91977b725844fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 31c | 2,875$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 72c | 2,453$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.89 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 57c | 2,284$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.59 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,359$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…be30backed No | 69c | 996.03$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 26c | 947.52$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 45c | 942.1$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.59 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 718.21$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed Yes | 60c | 686.58$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 27c | 583.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 56c | 566.18$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…f7eebacked No | 62c | 552.02$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 545.59$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 56c | 535$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked No | 76c | 526.41$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed Yes | 30c | 472.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 73c | 409.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 73c | 409.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 58c | 369.62$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…be6dbacked No | 71c | 283.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 40c | 282.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 19c | 264.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…96d1backed Yes | 31c | 260.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 43c | 246.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 23c | 217.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed No | 47c | 211.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 27c | 209.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 43c | 179.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 44c | 175.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 32c | 163.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cf…1901backed Yes | 31c | 163.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 159.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…2d39backed No | 66c | 152.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 147.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…32c1backed Yes | 24c | 143.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 37c | 123.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc299…b630backed Yes | 27c | 119.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…7db6backed Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…8c7ebacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 24c | 101.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 69c | 99.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 98.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08a…3ae5backed Yes | 31c | 96.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7d…6746backed Yes | 46c | 93.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 90.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 51c | 87.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 87.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 56c | 83.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…68b5backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 29c | 78.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 77.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…8a57backed Yes | 21c | 75.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 45c | 73.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 47c | 71.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 28c | 68.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 65c | 68.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0196backed Yes | 30c | 67.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 31c | 63.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 73c | 55.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +101%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 40c | 52.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf7…d632backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 51.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…06b9backed No | 55c | 50.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…237abacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 41c | 47.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed No | 65c | 46.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 39c | 43.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…db0cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 66c | 38.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +203%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…80a2backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…c364backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…8bc1backed No | 46c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…c500backed Yes | 46c | 32.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…424fbacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…dfbabacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5368backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 25.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0604…882abacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce9…a7d6backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…68a6backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 54c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…49c3backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137d…d67dbacked No | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…9c0ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.