Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f0668fba499e0a6b99bf11e54f1a7f74d58b5dede34c35657dd35e14c2e94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 0c | 4,787$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,369$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,337$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.17 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 945.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 631.18$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 16c | 547.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 9c | 519.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 435.01$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 426.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 47c | 415.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 36c | 399.53$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed Yes | 32c | 372.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 365.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 345.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 47c | 333.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 55c | 323.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 4c | 310.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 44c | 277.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 271.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 267.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 70c | 209$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 188.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 171.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked No | 65c | 166.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 163.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 162.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…a9f7backed Yes | 9c | 152.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 151.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed No | 71c | 150.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 52c | 148.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 147.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 146.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 45c | 142.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 142.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 134.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 130.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 69c | 126.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 124.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 59c | 115.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked No | 58c | 114.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…3436backed Yes | 56c | 112.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 32c | 111.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 29c | 108.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 105.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 65c | 97.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 93.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 67c | 92.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 13c | 89.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 84.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 41c | 83.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2041…bd4dbacked Yes | 45c | 81.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 48c | 81.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 81.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 79.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 79.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 48c | 73.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 27c | 69.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…5fd3backed Yes | 31c | 69.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 32c | 68.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 68.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 65.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 31c | 64.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 62.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 61.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 36c | 60.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 48c | 59.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 59.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 62c | 58.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes | 44c | 53.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 42c | 53.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 36c | 52.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 30c | 50.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…5e24backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 28c | 49.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 56c | 49.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…a1b4backed No | 60c | 47.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 40c | 46.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…af53backed Yes | 32c | 46.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 46.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 41c | 45.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 47c | 45.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 53c | 44.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 33c | 44.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 59c | 44.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 39c | 43.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 55c | 43.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 70c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.