TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bad…b337backed Yes0c4,787$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3332310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes1c1,369$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0872726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes44c1,337$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.178151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes12c945.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.852,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c631.18$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes16c547.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes9c519.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No48c435.01$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.461,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes35c426.24$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.124,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes47c415.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes36c399.53$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.724030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaed7…2783backed Yes32c372.87$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c365.72$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes31c345.91$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes47c333.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.149428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes55c323.18$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.311731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes4c310.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes44c277.06$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes31c271.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0442469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c267.1$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.011,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No70c209$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.579344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c188.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.351,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c171.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.642,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec0…3baabacked No65c166.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.172254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes18c163.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c162.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…a9f7backed Yes9c152.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c151.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed No71c150.49$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.68239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes52c148.36$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4711249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c147.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.395,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes36c146.47$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5945619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes45c142.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3734067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c142.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No44c136.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.363271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes32c134.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No73c130.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.682,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No69c126.08$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.911257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c124.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.754,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes59c115.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.714637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4c…ebeabacked No58c114.96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.282040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes44c114$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.163836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…3436backed Yes56c112.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c79…8b16backed Yes32c111.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes29c108.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c105.17$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd416…d364backed No65c97.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.861353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c93.93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No67c92.83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6319060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes13c89.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes29c84.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes41c83.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8732352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2041…bd4dbacked Yes45c81.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes48c81.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No64c81.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3720353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes18c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.79142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c79.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No59c79.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7820958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6032…4245backed Yes48c73.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.474330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes27c69.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.971,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb4…5fd3backed Yes31c69.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5770%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes32c68.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.224442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c68.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.772,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No60c65.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes31c64.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.016524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c62.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4118041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes40c62.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8639541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes41c61.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes36c60.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.027445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.63633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes48c59.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.434436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No70c59.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6535168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No62c58.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes44c53.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No42c53.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes36c52.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8114826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes30c50.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71df…5e24backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf66…0179backed Yes28c49.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes56c49.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4830442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes41c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8617838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe283…a1b4backed No60c47.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaea…95a9backed Yes40c46.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes32c46.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.832128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No80c46.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.462,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…befcbacked Yes41c45.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.631747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed No47c45.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.93046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30d…a622backed Yes53c44.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.821553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes33c44.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6112147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No59c44.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes35c43.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes39c43.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.953630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No55c43.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4650648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No70c42.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.769361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.