TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c975.66$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes67c888.36$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.354030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes42c783.7$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.5473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes63c652.24$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.4114236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes60c474.38$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.77534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes36c456.5$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c437.62$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.064,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes28c399.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.992725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes27c373.64$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No44c364.28$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.952,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes17c345.47$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.228013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No47c342.14$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.32,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec0…3baabacked Yes30c304.8$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.362254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c280.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes41c253.5$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.031,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes39c238.91$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.983145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fef…2f33backed No48c238.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c222.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes36c209.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c200.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1711,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes30c195.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.263630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c190.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.592,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No20c185.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6660121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes21c176.15$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No69c152.85$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.474456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes41c152.8$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6334067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes32c147.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.959344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No59c141.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.729341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No64c132.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.638961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes41c130$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.76747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c122.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes40c122.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.037445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes53c120.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No15c119.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.532,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes31c114.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c113.55$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.212,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99cd…bafbbacked No47c111.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c107.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c101.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No59c100.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3420958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8710141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes63c97.47$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1412147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes32c95.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1733243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c95.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.071,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes32c93.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.294344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x262f…87edbacked No19c93.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes28c92.8$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.821915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes38c86.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3350648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed Yes41c74.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.252653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes15c74.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.041,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c74.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.239,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes22c73.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5239541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd416…d364backed No57c73.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.451353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes21c68.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No59c66.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.381,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c61.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…2783backed Yes26c60.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes30c60.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes35c58.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.538151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c58.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No60c57.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3607…745fbacked Yes50c57.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.89683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes70c55.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.682259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes42c52.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.631,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes37c51.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.711,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3024046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes50c48.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c48.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.442,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed No64c48.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.852128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes38c47.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6517838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaea…95a9backed Yes27c47.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.731729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes70c47.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1830144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…5349backed Yes30c46.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c45.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.273,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…17fbbacked Yes36c44.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b85…7265backed No71c44.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.943860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c43.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes79c43.07$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.130046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes35c41.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes50c39.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6624442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes44c38.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.635362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85db…5858backed Yes27c38.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+189.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes54c38.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes33c37.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f4…315fbacked No75c36.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c36.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.172,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No70c34.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2515155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No58c33.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0117855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdc…3436backed No44c31.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eee…7d23backed No62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.116634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e9…0b94backed Yes57c29.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.891275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed No50c29.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes50c28.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2610444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30d…a622backed Yes50c28.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.