Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53283a3f3e3e9c55ef94baea457f59f2661ee2410f635263b37a94eb44b2064d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,151$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 36c | 3,051$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.13 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,514$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 4c | 706.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 13c | 575.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 549.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 7c | 526.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 515.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 515.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 17c | 510.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 45c | 434.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 12c | 390.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 330.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 325.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 4c | 300.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 300.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 14c | 294.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 11c | 287.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 11c | 238.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 234.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 11c | 210.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 10c | 210.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 193.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 6c | 184.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 7c | 178$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 12c | 169.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 160.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 149.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 147.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…4781backed Yes | 14c | 142.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 140.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 137.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 21c | 132.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…cb4ebacked Yes | 15c | 127.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 9c | 126.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 12c | 117.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 99.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed Yes | 13c | 90.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 15c | 73.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 69.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 31c | 68.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 18c | 66.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 35c | 65.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 58.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 45c | 53.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 43c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 48.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 45c | 46.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…b96cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +88%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 22.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 79c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.