Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x167196b3649158942cdac7085be80d5a27a16abe9e858eb7d26de7faa3ea097a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 28c | 585.87$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 372.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 3c | 357.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 76c | 233.04$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 219.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 210.08$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 191.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 165.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 34c | 135.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 11c | 133.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 111.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 25c | 106.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 45c | 106.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 103.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 25c | 102.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 23c | 100.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 91.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 88.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 87.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 43c | 84.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 60c | 80.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 77.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 72.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 71.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 68.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f25…7a7dbacked Yes | 43c | 68.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 64.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 38c | 57.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 56.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 23c | 49.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 57c | 49.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 40c | 48.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 46.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 62c | 46.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 73c | 46.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…ac29backed Yes | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 42.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 68c | 40.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 40.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 61c | 39.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 35c | 36.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 35.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 34.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 57c | 34.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 68c | 28.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 67c | 27.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 52c | 27.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 77c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 26.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 46c | 24.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 51c | 23.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 78c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.