Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92eb9a38338fbbeaca6f6ca179e54bf6b7837eab3dfbf0abeeab5eca83016b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 27c | 696.42$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.12 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 523.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 13c | 393.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.92 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 73c | 369.26$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 284.63$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 21c | 242.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 219.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 200.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 164.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 71c | 149.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 148.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 65c | 100.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 64c | 99.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 51c | 97.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 21c | 90.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 84.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 17c | 75.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 39c | 73.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 34c | 69.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 72c | 66.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 65.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 33c | 47.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 45.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 41.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 48c | 37.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 44c | 29.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 52c | 27.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 27.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.