Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5141dba23114f1bff82cc55066ada49b8f64e30cea352bda28cad26a373680b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 73c | 501.26$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 10c | 458.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 44c | 292.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 202.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 187.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 167.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 155.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 152.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 143.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 69c | 131.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 129.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 44c | 106.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 46c | 89.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 84.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 78.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 54c | 74.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 72.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 71.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 55c | 68.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 66.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 65.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 34c | 64.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 50c | 64.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 48c | 58.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 34c | 55.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 51c | 52.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4397…c3f0backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 46c | 48.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 51c | 43.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 28c | 43.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 30c | 42.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 77c | 42.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 41.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 40.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 49c | 39.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 38.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 37.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 53c | 36.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 35.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 43c | 32.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 37c | 32.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 70c | 31.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 28.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…833fbacked Yes | 42c | 27.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 45c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 71c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.