Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2266675ba51ff4a43845b925ec6aed17fe0292de17a095911923f899cdfdd3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 343.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 306.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 17c | 260.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 24c | 182.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 12c | 172.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 160.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 155.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 152.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 149.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 25c | 147.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 17c | 145.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 131.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 36c | 130.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 128.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 122.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 13c | 120.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 119.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 119.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 104.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 15c | 101.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…f488backed Yes | 19c | 99.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 98.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 85.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 18c | 84.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 83.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 80.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 78.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…1cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 76.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 79c | 63.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 19c | 60.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 50.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 23c | 49.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…30d4backed Yes | 28c | 38.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…6bc4backed Yes | 33c | 35.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…51bbbacked No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…4329backed No | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 70c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…e71fbacked No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 79c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.