Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f08d082f7ee457ff9b8212b494576533b5c89f442f36352ec2af772ea75b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 0c | 48,353$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 38c | 547.45$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 16c | 306.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.65 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…5cb0backed No | 70c | 276.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…2b0ebacked No | 77c | 253.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 71c | 205.08$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 27c | 185.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 157.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 68c | 147.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked No | 35c | 142.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 123.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 110.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 110.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 98.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 97.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 94.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 92.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 19c | 87.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 83.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 48c | 72.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 72.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 21c | 72.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 17c | 71.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 34c | 68.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 63.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 66c | 62.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 33c | 56.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 55.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 26c | 55.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 19c | 53.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 50.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 74c | 48.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 40c | 47.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 47.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 46.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 31c | 45.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 40.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 31c | 38.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 74c | 36.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 74c | 33.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 74c | 31.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde14…615dbacked Yes | 79c | 22.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.