Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8319589816436f72772f79e8b39b67faaffecdd1cc93376abbe4bea29431cd32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 45c | 356.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 22c | 198.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 38c | 195.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 153.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 146.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 130.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 50c | 125.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 116.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 42c | 99.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 85.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 80.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 44c | 78.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 78.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 74.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed No | 49c | 74.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Yes | 42c | 73.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 73.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e1…6737backed No | 52c | 73.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 57c | 72.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 69.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 67.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 41c | 59.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 58.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 53c | 55.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 55.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 52.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 52.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 52.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 49.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked No | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 48.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 70c | 46.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 56c | 46.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked Yes | 41c | 45.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 30c | 45.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 43c | 44.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 39c | 43.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 43.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 41c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 69c | 38.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 59c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 36.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…6bc4backed Yes | 31c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 34.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed Yes | 41c | 32.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 32.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 42c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed No | 66c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 42c | 26.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…48a5backed Yes | 40c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 69c | 24.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 63c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…4329backed No | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 59c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 76c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.