Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d06a878ef1132e945003f2b2c1a915c733f826f410eb9e235613504e7a392c7

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Downof Up, Down
Resolved: Apr 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $63,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,603 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe94b…5abebacked Up	28c	3,585$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987	150	20.7%31 W · 119 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up	1c	2,971$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	210	11.9%25 W · 185 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Down	74c	2,844$2,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.65	938	40.2%377 W · 561 L	-69.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9632…a379backed Up	20c	2,453$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up	40c	2,045$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.03	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9470…989dbacked Up	29c	1,284$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.76	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Up	39c	1,262$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.6	256	61.3%157 W · 99 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64da…fc36backed Down	55c	1,166$638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.56	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	61cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Up	16c	1,161$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Up	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e71…be4cbacked Down	48c	932.11$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.15	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+31%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55d4…3e04backed Up	5c	915.47$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Up	52c	852.78$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.51	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Up	51c	800$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-10.8wins	-0.26per pick	45cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Up	11c	799.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.6	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Up	3c	700.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up	41c	600$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bbc…a2b1backed Up	35c	600$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c7…0325backed Up	7c	501.21$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Down	77c	499.99$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113	93	63.4%59 W · 34 L	+12.1wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up	48c	462.07$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.43	117	36.8%43 W · 74 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b0…3c56backed Up	21c	455.29$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.61	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.18per pick	20cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed Up	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Up	8c	392.64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.41	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-28%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Up	6c	379.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed Up	46c	330$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-4.7wins	-0.36per pick	59cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x11b6…0cf3backed Up	53c	326.17$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…50aebacked Up	4c	321.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e2…7deebacked Up	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-12%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x657c…74a0backed Up	50c	296.68$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Down	48c	260$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.2	308	39.6%122 W · 186 L	-17.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Down	80c	229.02$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.59	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Up	52c	221.68$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.27	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Up	51c	220$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a46…2294backed Up	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd313…c026backed Up	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Up	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	188	4.3%8 W · 180 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Up	43c	200$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.33	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Up	43c	191$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.13	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed Up	18c	190$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked Down	67c	187.63$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.06	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0836…3ac9backed Up	7c	185.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa05…a764backed Up	10c	127.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d7…af0dbacked Up	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda91…69f3backed Up	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4238…e917backed Up	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…a3ffbacked Up	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d18…b4e2backed Down	54c	109.35$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed Up	51c	106.17$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Up	24c	104.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa810…854dbacked Up	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	47cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x395e…34c0backed Up	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-39%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Up	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-6.5wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	+289%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4472…46ebbacked Up	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a9…516abacked Up	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	61cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b6…49b2backed Down	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…db6bbacked Up	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Up	43c	99.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.14	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-4.2wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedfd…5728backed Up	20c	99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6349…6713backed Down	48c	88.08$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Down	56c	80$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.6	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Down	55c	72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3858…a870backed Down	51c	62.96$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.85	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e45…9e45backed Up	23c	56.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e9…0d07backed Down	54c	35.67$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.41	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Up	42c	35.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.6wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77e8…b14fbacked Down	47c	34.64$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market