TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41e7…0788backed Yes5c4,925$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.522133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6818…13aebacked Yes0c3,548$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes42c1,518$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No72c1,164$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32518041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa935…d988backed Yes1c1,050$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…a475backed Yes61c903.02$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.83250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c870.8$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes10c698.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d1…0501backed Yes5c686.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c623.92$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.361,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes18c569.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177b…f4e3backed Yes5c547.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes4c475.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.091,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes20c475.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.853324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No54c465.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.162,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes26c448.34$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7210120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…9e62backed Yes3c443.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes31c399.27$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3432132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes38c379$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.088250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes15c373.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7861821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes21c369.53$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2145619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c360.93$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes28c352.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.745032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c350.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.592,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes18c349.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.21,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c348.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe17e…ed4abacked Yes23c341.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes29c340.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.911,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c335.33$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.628,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes28c327.59$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8310225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes3c312.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c299.63$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes5c294.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No68c286.56$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No68c279.52$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9916651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c273.07$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.021,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d56…92e6backed Yes30c240.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.963647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed Yes7c230.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.229668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes27c228.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.633271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes35c226.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.687744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…5289backed Yes38c213.83$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.21729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c212.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.883,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…e549backed Yes11c199.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes32c191.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6531029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No68c184.04$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9510569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ec…4735backed Yes33c180.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c177.07$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes25c174.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.269445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1a…af3bbacked Yes39c168$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x847e…55babacked Yes34c165.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead6…7876backed Yes39c164.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58af…1250backed Yes24c162.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.491926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c159.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes25c159.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c158.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes30c157.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.487416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x218e…b59bbacked Yes32c154.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes23c149.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes25c149.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4912233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9d0…b73cbacked Yes31c149.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No65c147.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes14c140.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.33441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59a7…30eebacked Yes13c139.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No77c137.95$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.411874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes24c137$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes39c136.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.681838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6baa…d618backed Yes27c135.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.111225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes15c134.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes24c133.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1319541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0baa…ff26backed Yes28c131.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c128.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes39c128.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.428643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No77c120.31$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.679176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed Yes38c115.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.234632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c110.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.562,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No79c109.54$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5727376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes24c109.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.651,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes26c108.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2bf…95d3backed Yes46c106.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes28c104.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.486219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No76c103.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes16c103.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes17c100.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.928329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.712735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes25c99.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c99.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.149,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes26c98.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8724921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ea…ff80backed Yes37c97.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No69c96.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.883842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes42c94.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.427129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes28c93.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No73c91.73$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed Yes27c88.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No69c88.64$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4830859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes32c87.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1715133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.