Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1ac87461b1c76c00c28641446abf76d5a19444d2e7f0b08d0d86256ee8a702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,920$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 0c | 11,882$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 10,946$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.4 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 31c | 4,771$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.73 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 3,663$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 9c | 3,163$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.38 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,096$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,080$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 2,068$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 11c | 1,611$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 11c | 1,362$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 1,335$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 70c | 1,090$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.32 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 1,077$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 75c | 952.84$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…fb17backed Yes | 1c | 942.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 29c | 884.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 858.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 838.44$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 780.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 74c | 737.5$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 71c | 685.65$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…72d5backed No | 65c | 589.65$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 9c | 511.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 508.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked No | 63c | 482.68$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 479.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 476.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed Yes | 72c | 449.51$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 421.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 399.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 383.59$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 5c | 350.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…f86dbacked No | 33c | 314.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 305.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 77c | 279.3$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 272.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed Yes | 11c | 269.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 8c | 254.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…ea77backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 247.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 18c | 245.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…8208backed Yes | 6c | 243.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 229.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 225.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 15c | 224.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…c369backed Yes | 12c | 220.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 70c | 218$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked No | 40c | 216.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 10c | 211.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 204.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 54c | 194.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…58d6backed Yes | 13c | 192.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 13c | 191.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…14a7backed Yes | 14c | 189.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…ec73backed Yes | 67c | 185.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 185.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 24c | 183.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 167.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 159.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc27…5639backed Yes | 8c | 154.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 11c | 152.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 151.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 146.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…f1cdbacked Yes | 11c | 125.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 71c | 122.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 120.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 16c | 117.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 117.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 115.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 13c | 115.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed Yes | 14c | 113.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 110.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…9a04backed Yes | 17c | 110.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed Yes | 12c | 108.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 102.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 13c | 101.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 98.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…702abacked Yes | 14c | 97.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 95.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 11c | 94.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 15c | 90.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 14c | 86.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 14c | 84.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 43c | 80.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 72c | 72.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…5c68backed Yes | 16c | 66.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 72c | 61.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 39c | 60.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 71c | 49.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 74c | 42.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.