Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80517ade79f745cf2fd14e6cc44b6b7b1f645d0763c6eecf4f616a3ee4f97f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 19,122$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.86 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,373$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 2,280$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,002$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 1,885$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,854$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,689$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,640$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 1,606$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 1c | 1,514$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…ab0cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,034$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 933.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 10c | 915.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Yes | 4c | 816.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 5c | 786.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 770.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed Yes | 5c | 737.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 717.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 3c | 705.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…07eebacked No | 79c | 678.58$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 658.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 6c | 558.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 5c | 520.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 2c | 509.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc27…5639backed Yes | 2c | 486.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…02ffbacked Yes | 4c | 432.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 395.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 5c | 393.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 5c | 353.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 15c | 351.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 327.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…e392backed Yes | 6c | 325.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 5c | 303.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 294.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…7156backed Yes | 7c | 259.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f2…7c8cbacked Yes | 5c | 207.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 7c | 155.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed Yes | 10c | 138.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 13c | 94.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…cdcfbacked Yes | 12c | 93.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed Yes | 13c | 87.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 77c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.