TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea60…3467backed No1c8,058$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes22c3,541$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.1657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No1c2,191$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9916740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No62c1,986$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.6528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes33c963.88$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.7431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c863.84$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.776,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes29c862.37$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.1918041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c840.85$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.592,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes29c732.84$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.382317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes46c700.75$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.6148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc99…a475backed Yes40c687.41$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e7…0788backed Yes35c679.11$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.682133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed No2c625.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No73c589.99$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.523677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c578.5$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf94…f69dbacked No77c494.16$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.431926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c480.74$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c449.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.981,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes59c446.74$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c439.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c433.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e3…8973backed Yes60c427.24$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.221154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No7c426.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked No79c407.5$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.531,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes35c400$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26232132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed Yes53c397.5$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.551662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…28aebacked Yes35c378$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c376.91$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No5c373.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes23c353.58$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9613930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…d0c6backed No27c348.6$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No78c338.13$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1511874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes21c338.04$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.139626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes18c335.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.414314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes19c319.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.6820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c319.79$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.492,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes32c307.36$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No74c299.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c271.14$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes25c270$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes43c264.98$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c241.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.121,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes34c229.92$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9312033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked No6c229.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.593923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed No61c227.15$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.242846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes73c221.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.282240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes24c210.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8624216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…55babacked Yes51c208.74$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes38c203.24$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.491,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1366004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No50c196.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c195.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.457,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes34c191.7$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes22c188.54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No63c188.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.691,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c181.63$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7f…c369backed Yes26c181.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes41c175$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.159445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked No73c170.78$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.012050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes28c168.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.231942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2d…f86dbacked No49c166.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No55c166.17$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.251762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes29c163.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5311038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c155.03$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.831,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No77c154.41$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.38969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes29c149.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes31c147.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes34c146.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4366944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes22c145.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.861,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d56…92e6backed Yes38c144.65$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.623647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No45c143.49$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.992,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No71c142.42$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0425175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes33c141.34$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.698643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes35c136.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.171,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c134.64$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No64c133.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.088240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes42c132.34$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7361629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No74c132.23$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3619148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No75c130.47$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.472458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c128.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes23c127.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes53c125.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8839535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes12c125$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11020942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No79c124.41$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.879176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No10c121.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9516639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes47c119.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.537644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes49c117.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.451127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed No80c116.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0619430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd662…aeb5backed Yes38c116.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.312045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d1…0501backed Yes54c114.63$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No80c114.22$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab07…1291backed No42c112.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.041421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No76c109.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6722675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c108.57$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No15c103.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.812828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed No68c99.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.99850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes22c97.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.531,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes36c95.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2624921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.