Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682cce92554fa6579180fc771ea36768a51b961e11e4be6d52f0272fbe08a16f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 16c | 1,552$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 850.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 80c | 689.64$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 588.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 20c | 496.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 70c | 458.39$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 428.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 19c | 399.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 378.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 353.14$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 345.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 344.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…7c7fbacked Yes | 27c | 339.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 14c | 338.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…ed4abacked Yes | 32c | 325.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 315.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 312.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 23c | 309.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 21c | 280.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 20c | 257.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…75cfbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 23c | 232.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 226.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 224.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 220.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 37c | 214.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 78c | 211.53$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 206.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 22c | 196.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…adfcbacked Yes | 23c | 194.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 12c | 187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 173.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 12c | 172.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 18c | 166.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 27c | 159.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 158.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 24c | 147.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 145.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 144.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 144.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 10c | 136.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 25c | 131.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…4842backed Yes | 26c | 130.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 130.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…beb5backed Yes | 10c | 130.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 24c | 126.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…f721backed Yes | 22c | 126.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 125.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 120.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 119.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 117.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…9fa4backed Yes | 44c | 115.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb919…858cbacked Yes | 42c | 113.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes | 18c | 103.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 18c | 101.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 101.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 29c | 99.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 17c | 99.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 94.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 21c | 94.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 17c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 32c | 92.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 17c | 91.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 26c | 91.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 11c | 91.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 21c | 87.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 84.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 83.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 82.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 26c | 79.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 17c | 76.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 18c | 75.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 75.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 22c | 71.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 25c | 71.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9306backed Yes | 26c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 28c | 69.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 69.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 16c | 68.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…d618backed Yes | 28c | 65.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 65.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 75c | 64.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 62.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 26c | 62.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 28c | 61.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…702abacked Yes | 31c | 60.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 75c | 59.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 58.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 34c | 57.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes | 21c | 56.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 73c | 54.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 37c | 52.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 77c | 50.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 21c | 50.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…60c3backed Yes | 39c | 48.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.