TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes0c3,185$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes16c1,552$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.211233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes4c850.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No80c689.64$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c588.13$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.388,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes20c496.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.145032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed No70c458.39$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.281942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c428.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.792,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes19c399.53$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4310120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes13c378.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No80c353.14$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c345.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c344.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.691,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa126…7c7fbacked Yes27c339.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes14c338.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe17e…ed4abacked Yes32c325.17$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c315.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.941,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c312.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6934617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes23c309.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…0937backed Yes21c280.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.871631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes20c257.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1412033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x598c…75cfbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes23c232.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.423930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c226.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.091,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes12c224.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes23c220.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3349038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes37c214.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.377146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No78c211.53$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8410569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No72c206.24$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9862555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes22c196.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x556b…adfcbacked Yes23c194.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes12c187$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.429445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes9c173.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes12c172.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3212233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes18c166.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes27c159.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3510225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No76c158.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.061,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes24c147.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.528551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c145.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6615626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c144.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c144.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes10c136.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes25c131.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.311833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb50f…4842backed Yes26c130.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c130.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe316…beb5backed Yes10c130.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes24c126.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9116320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa907…f721backed Yes22c126.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes21c125.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c120.12$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.472,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c119.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c117.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…9fa4backed Yes44c115.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb919…858cbacked Yes42c113.11$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes18c103.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes18c101.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.272240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes22c101.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes29c99.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9619720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes17c99.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9624921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes29c94.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8932132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes21c94.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes17c93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7819123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes32c92.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.715133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e7…0788backed Yes17c91.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.422133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes26c91.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0912625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes11c91.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.353324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes21c87.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4240935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes19c84.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No77c83.41$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.845,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes20c82.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes26c79.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.793633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes17c76.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ad…8db9backed Yes18c75.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.774344.2%19 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes23c75.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2528329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes22c71.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0611646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes25c71.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1116832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ef…9306backed Yes26c71.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes28c69.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9121429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c69.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.743,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…8a50backed Yes16c68.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.218046.3%37 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6baa…d618backed Yes28c65.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.571225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c65.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.072,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b8b2backed No75c64.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No73c62.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes26c62.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.477326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes28c61.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.042231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46b2…702abacked Yes31c60.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No75c59.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.959333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c58.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes34c57.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.513855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes21c56.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No73c54.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes37c52.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.234221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No77c50.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.627754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes21c50.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.728119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes22c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ca…60c3backed Yes39c48.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.