TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x585a…26ecbacked No0c5,469$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6bd…2bd4backed No0c5,096$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked No1c4,544$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.032035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b5…326dbacked No1c3,818$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes60c2,423$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.9136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No44c1,905$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.494339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No5c1,561$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5512154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes74c1,255$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.883043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes7c1,047$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.914,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked No35c875.07$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.27825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes9c856.05$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes61c758.35$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.0625362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes10c661.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.413221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No45c590.36$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes23c589.09$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.772045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c563.1$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.765,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes8c519.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.2157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes56c512.33$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.2371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes25c419.97$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8225344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes75c400.83$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91bc…a124backed Yes62c383.87$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+108%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes70c371.62$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.493622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes14c357.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes58c340.15$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1218668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No62c320.31$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes21c302.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1624238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes32c287.88$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c285.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Yes11c279.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.712722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes11c278.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.032307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc138…9baabacked Yes6c276.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+195.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c274.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.441,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes73c230.48$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c227$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed Yes6c226.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.816241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb0…611abacked Yes39c223.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.55541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes10c218.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes37c210.86$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.121,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes15c209.89$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.896633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes6c200$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.49919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes38c196.2$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.7225742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No76c193.28$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.410154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Yes11c188.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1675824.1%14 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes69c188.36$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.011,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c3…2555backed No10c183.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes15c179.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5819123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3683…1bb0backed Yes10c174.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.181050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b6…5c95backed No62c173.9$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed5…ee90backed Yes11c171.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.711844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes17c164.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7221429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No27c161.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.543,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c160.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes20c156.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3413424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c149.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.782,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes51c148.59$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5914062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No59c146.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes16c146.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c142.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0aa…96f5backed No39c141.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.08580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes13c127.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0232830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes11c125.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.692152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c121.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.631,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes12c117.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8410642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No28c107.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1423547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…7f8abacked No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.84463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes34c99.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.672931%9 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes31c93.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9311663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes20c83.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7911140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes65c78.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5614645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…f35abacked Yes75c77.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.212491.7%22 W · 2 L+5.8wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+34.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes14c77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.861225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes17c74.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3613322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe036…c94abacked Yes79c73.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.515664.3%36 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No36c71.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.932,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…4517backed Yes62c70.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.14161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c70.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0209…2f35backed Yes71c63.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.56633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.678663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3edb…5c3ebacked Yes35c56.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes34c53.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.172,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes34c52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.323030%9 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes78c50.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1926265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No21c48.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1926327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x525c…23acbacked Yes79c47.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.731060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c42.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.962,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…ed07backed No55c42.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes35c42.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.439852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No48c42.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2121848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b8…e749backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes34c38.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes47c38.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7140242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes35c38.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa542…3f6cbacked No31c37.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.35141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes30c36.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6652533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.