TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83e4…757dbacked Yes3c1,800$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes26c759.51$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.287534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes27c748.14$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.683221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c547.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes23c477.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2919338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No75c474.97$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4311652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes16c412.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7471823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes28c298.13$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.484,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c279.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…6008backed Yes13c228.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.645425.9%14 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b6…5c95backed Yes28c226.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes23c212.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.541,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes6c200.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c186.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes8c167.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes27c156.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.717736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes32c154.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3af…e1c6backed No74c153.68$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.35875%6 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes16c150.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.221,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c142.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes28c138.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.313043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes27c138.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.071625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ef…3fe0backed No79c136.24$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes17c130.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes16c127.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7914062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c120.58$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.592,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4950…32cdbacked No76c118.53$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc017…9f26backed Yes25c110.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.761233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b97…fc45backed Yes18c109.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.470%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes28c108.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes30c107.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.562152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes33c106.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.972638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes30c100.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x704d…aceebacked Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2134918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No74c98.72$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6744646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes29c96.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8724029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes19c91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes26c89.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.151241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No77c89.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3686173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes17c88.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.339852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes27c88.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes26c86.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8117…9832backed Yes28c77.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes30c77.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.257728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3683…1bb0backed Yes24c76.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.481050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes23c73.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes19c72.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1352533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes25c71.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c71.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes28c66.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes23c64.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No78c64.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.942469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…5c3ebacked Yes20c61.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb954…c00dbacked No79c61.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.763148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045c…c74abacked Yes27c61.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3827…5455backed Yes32c61.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.365356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No80c61.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.433675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c57.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1827167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes20c55.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.932,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b98…f553backed Yes22c54.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes22c49.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes26c49.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.813658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37ff…b5f3backed Yes27c48.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes29c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9239541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes29c46.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4712941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc50a…72fbbacked Yes27c45.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes29c43.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.623030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…bcf9backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No73c39.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.784170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabc6…acb4backed No79c39.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.291764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes31c39.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15044%22 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No77c38.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No75c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c35.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.175,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No72c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5214944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5df…bc23backed No71c32.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.682263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e03…7d65backed No78c31.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72075%15 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c30.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No75c29.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No76c28.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…36d1backed No78c28.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.242951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fd8…89e0backed No76c26.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c21.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No73c20.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.556845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No71c19.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.784067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc7…e29cbacked No74c16.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c16.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.859,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37f…95d4backed No71c15.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No74c14.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8535168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.