TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c2,027$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c1,837$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.864,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes20c1,452$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes3c1,345$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.091931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes11c901.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9133018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes3c774.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.25708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes21c735.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.663221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes24c559.31$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.513043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c554.51$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes9c418.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c397.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes29c309.06$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.271,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes22c266.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.662927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes13c261.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes23c246.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.267736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c243.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes20c192.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.552045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes22c177.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c176.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No77c175.26$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c173.02$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.995,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3683…1bb0backed Yes29c159.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.461050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes22c154.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.461,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes29c145.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1324238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes19c143.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8219123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes15c138.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4320942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes19c130.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes14c129.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7119338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes20c129.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.659028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes17c111$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.872128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes25c109.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.812152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes24c107.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.842,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes23c106.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1832132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3edb…5c3ebacked Yes22c96.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes31c93.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8611663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes19c87.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7116045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes22c87.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes14c85.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked No77c83.82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.694362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ee…23a6backed No78c83.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.423562.9%22 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes27c76.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes19c75.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ff…b5f3backed Yes19c74.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes18c74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes34c70.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No76c69.94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes28c69.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.388428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc017…9f26backed Yes27c69.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No75c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.254170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No73c64.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5442976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5771…b356backed No78c62.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No73c58.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7627167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No74c57.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8512154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c57.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.867,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No69c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c52.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes31c52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.123030%9 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c51.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445a…651abacked Yes28c50.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes26c45.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c42.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8221235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No68c42.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.325850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104360.5%26 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.46479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b97…fc45backed Yes35c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5df…bc23backed No78c34.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.722263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No72c32.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0814944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf64f…d646backed No75c31.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabc6…acb4backed No78c31.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No76c27.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7111652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c25.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.522,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd279…6838backed No75c24.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabea…3257backed No80c24.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.96473.4%47 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…87f2backed No80c23.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf942…e4eebacked No75c23.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+86.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbadf…9abebacked No75c21.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No74c20.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.236845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa915…93c7backed No78c18.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.141181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No77c17.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c15.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.082,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901e…7389backed No79c15.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.258670.9%61 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No78c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.