TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tsitsipasof Medvedev, Tsitsipas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$403,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$430,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd599…bf55backed Medvedev35c56,739$19,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,7824320.9%9 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Tsitsipas64c47,026$30,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,732.42,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tsitsipas63c29,979$18,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,135.5311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Medvedev66c26,633$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50018756.1%105 W · 82 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Tsitsipas28c15,894$4,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,473.1819134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Tsitsipas32c14,348$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,725.436026.7%16 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Medvedev36c13,810$5,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,036.11,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Tsitsipas26c12,830$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,499.3276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tsitsipas67c12,767$8,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.088,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Tsitsipas59c12,381$7,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,109.332,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Medvedev21c12,041$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.212,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Medvedev72c10,245$7,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,373.8427063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ed…cfe3backed Medvedev36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6007357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Medvedev53c9,401$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tsitsipas59c9,375$5,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.6181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Tsitsipas26c9,307$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,887.061,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Medvedev68c7,468$5,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.2536968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Medvedev72c6,690$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,816.815665.4%102 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Medvedev53c6,650$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,553.4993055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Tsitsipas66c5,198$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.371,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Medvedev56c4,937$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.823,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Tsitsipas27c4,460$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.8648552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Medvedev70c3,662$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.962,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Medvedev73c3,376$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.3321147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tsitsipas27c3,341$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.826,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Tsitsipas62c3,220$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.114645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Medvedev48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Tsitsipas64c2,500$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Medvedev74c2,500$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8c…b52cbacked Medvedev74c2,284$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6906737.3%25 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ec…1ea6backed Medvedev73c2,103$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3216…aa16backed Tsitsipas27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Tsitsipas27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4601,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tsitsipas46c1,883$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.22,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Medvedev73c1,762$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.099264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Medvedev38c1,716$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.41,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Tsitsipas27c1,579$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.514450.7%73 W · 71 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Medvedev39c1,537$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5628444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8082…4d66backed Tsitsipas65c1,530$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.055658.9%33 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Medvedev72c1,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08065558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Medvedev72c1,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08020653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Medvedev39c1,499$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.6157645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc3…aae3backed Medvedev24c1,496$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tsitsipas27c1,440$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.371,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd29…a74abacked Medvedev74c1,435$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x800b…152abacked Tsitsipas30c1,410$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9877163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Tsitsipas27c1,409$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.339741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Tsitsipas28c1,408$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.3230530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Tsitsipas29c1,408$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.2238133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Medvedev74c1,358$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb88e…08f3backed Medvedev70c1,257$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tsitsipas27c1,248$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.681,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Tsitsipas63c1,200$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44447057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Medvedev42c1,192$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Medvedev74c1,146$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.3258359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Medvedev5c1,110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21af…f272backed Medvedev63c1,107$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7008353%44 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea1…9569backed Tsitsipas28c1,073$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.514647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Medvedev24c1,064$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616339.3%64 W · 99 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Tsitsipas43c1,008$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.3384736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Tsitsipas27c1,003$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.841,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Medvedev5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Tsitsipas29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7109950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Medvedev72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7208762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Medvedev74c999.98$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9946553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Medvedev51c944$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.1969249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tsitsipas30c937.41$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.866,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Medvedev23c930$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1313134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Tsitsipas27c912.68$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.266552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev67c896.2$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.782,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Tsitsipas66c851.3$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.441,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Tsitsipas27c812.7$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.765849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tsitsipas72c769.21$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.772,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac2…76e6backed Medvedev74c749.85$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Medvedev5c740$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3746030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Tsitsipas26c732.08$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.0618447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Medvedev35c700$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24432050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Medvedev39c699.99$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9939438.1%150 W · 244 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Medvedev29c699.98$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9910440.4%42 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Medvedev74c675.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Medvedev38c673.6$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25511530.4%35 W · 80 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Medvedev41c662.39$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.5838739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Medvedev12c650$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3612722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Medvedev34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20416133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76a…c5c9backed Tsitsipas27c599.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.995527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tsitsipas28c586.52$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.761,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Medvedev35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20065651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Medvedev37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Medvedev38c526.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tsitsipas63c514.55$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.911,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Tsitsipas28c501.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.0775262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Medvedev72c499.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9914940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas27c490.58$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.134,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tsitsipas34c490.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.149143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Tsitsipas62c485.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6426158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f28…e43ebacked Medvedev42c474.2$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.711850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Medvedev53c469.81$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2477462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Tsitsipas27c453.05$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.0716340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Medvedev36c416.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048242.5%205 W · 277 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Medvedev39c403.67$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9522634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.