Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4719bebf0b0de7193f95aa2b1e589049460fb00346467f41f7284bd97449ffb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Medvedev, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3e2…2c81backed Medvedev | 49c | 13,154$6,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,445.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 8,499$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Tsitsipas | 51c | 7,766$3,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…2999backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 7,166$3,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,511.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Medvedev | 49c | 4,125$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…5266backed Medvedev | 49c | 3,111$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…a6b0backed Medvedev | 49c | 3,041$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tsitsipas | 52c | 1,296$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.53 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Tsitsipas | 71c | 1,150$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.01 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Medvedev | 50c | 786.64$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.49 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Medvedev | 52c | 696.43$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.64 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…04e7backed Medvedev | 48c | 633.69$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…b291backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 633.69$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tsitsipas | 47c | 499.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Medvedev | 52c | 477.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Medvedev | 53c | 406.17$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Medvedev | 53c | 374.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tsitsipas | 47c | 365.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Medvedev | 52c | 242.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas | 47c | 239.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 53c | 237.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Medvedev | 49c | 204.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Tsitsipas | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Tsitsipas | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Medvedev | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…e97cbacked Medvedev | 55c | 122.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…c586backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 118.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Tsitsipas | 49c | 102.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Medvedev | 50c | 101.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Medvedev | 52c | 100.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +12%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Tsitsipas | 67c | 74.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Medvedev | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Medvedev | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Tsitsipas | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 39.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…85f7backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Medvedev | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tsitsipas | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Medvedev | 48c | 29.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…5dbcbacked Medvedev | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Medvedev | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…75f6backed Medvedev | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Medvedev | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)this page
- Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs TsitsipasTsitsipas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.