Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6fbb8e3d3c0244b8486817f8837614f68b561cf375096caed639cace6a2cc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mochizukiof Khachanov, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mochizuki | 39c | 3,647$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…2e69backed Khachanov | 71c | 1,400$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…b910backed Khachanov | 70c | 711.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mochizuki | 30c | 524.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…ea80backed Khachanov | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mochizuki | 32c | 330$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…a8adbacked Khachanov | 69c | 288.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…403ebacked Khachanov | 69c | 253.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mochizuki | 44c | 209.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Mochizuki | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 199.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Mochizuki | 30c | 167$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf774…3821backed Mochizuki | 35c | 163.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…c983backed Khachanov | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…3a6abacked Khachanov | 70c | 143.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Khachanov | 71c | 141.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…bb45backed Khachanov | 68c | 132.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Mochizuki | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mochizuki | 30c | 106.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Mochizuki | 33c | 92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Khachanov | 43c | 91.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Mochizuki | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed Mochizuki | 32c | 85.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Khachanov | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 43.1%215 W · 284 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Khachanov | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Khachanov | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…0af8backed Khachanov | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…9664backed Khachanov | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Mochizuki | 44c | 31.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Khachanov | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Khachanov | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked Mochizuki | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | -16.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Khachanov | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…2957backed Khachanov | 68c | 20.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…5a9ebacked Mochizuki | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Khachanov | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…2d58backed Khachanov | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)this page
- Mochizuki vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mochizuki vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Mochizuki vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Mochizuki vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Mochizuki vs. Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Karen KhachanovKhachanov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.