TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tabiloof Tabilo, Passaro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$519,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$604,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd57…694dbacked Passaro41c48,570$19,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,913.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Tabilo59c48,000$28,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,6801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Passaro42c37,827$15,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,913.842,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Passaro38c32,933$12,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,453.2376140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Tabilo56c20,656$11,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,016.5744360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Passaro55c20,498$11,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,341.352,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Tabilo74c17,639$13,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.3593055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tabilo51c16,475$8,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,071.3911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Tabilo48c12,066$5,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,309.772,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Passaro38c11,099$4,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,193.676,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Passaro31c10,610$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.117,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Tabilo62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8006552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…2a72backed Tabilo55c9,465$5,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,247.491973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tabilo57c8,792$5,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.0681349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Passaro35c8,125$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,840.4428338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Tabilo61c7,381$4,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.743051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Tabilo67c6,855$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.225563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Passaro45c6,676$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00027460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Passaro38c5,200$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.9812147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Tabilo59c4,819$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.5811560%69 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tabilo63c4,306$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.344,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Tabilo67c3,734$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.5835247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Passaro39c3,652$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.296339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Passaro40c3,523$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.5210541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Passaro36c3,437$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.3199044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f15…4be2backed Passaro26c3,103$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe55…48fabacked Tabilo63c3,020$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick66cpaid-49.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Passaro56c3,000$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.0547057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Tabilo67c2,987$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.64645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Tabilo69c2,902$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.2530241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Tabilo55c2,874$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.063,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Tabilo65c2,764$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.384658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Passaro52c2,712$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.092,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Passaro39c2,649$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.9331332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Tabilo66c2,576$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.763467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Passaro39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Tabilo62c2,355$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.0733241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Passaro39c2,311$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.549950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Tabilo69c2,300$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71319134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tabilo59c2,194$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.92,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Tabilo62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7606350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Passaro28c1,787$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.5465647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Tabilo67c1,750$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.545457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5527…32f3backed Tabilo78c1,723$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Passaro37c1,697$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.481,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Tabilo63c1,589$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.543554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Tabilo63c1,586$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.814250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Tabilo68c1,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.998762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Passaro33c1,415$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Tabilo69c1,287$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.9616665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tabilo60c1,106$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.151,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Passaro34c1,081$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36519938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Tabilo62c1,081$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6511353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Passaro39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.078248.8%40 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Tabilo62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38014568.3%99 W · 46 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Tabilo69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3109567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Passaro33c986.55$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.64,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Passaro42c974.31$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5817933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Tabilo34c973.97$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.3965651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Passaro41c954.78$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0443042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Tabilo61c935$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.6587251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ca…ae4abacked Passaro3c921.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.111118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-74.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Tabilo33c910.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.825145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tabilo68c871.07$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.738,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Passaro31c870.36$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.531,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Tabilo35c847.89$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.1538739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Passaro35c845.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Tabilo61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.6713560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Tabilo60c785.23$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.543342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tabilo59c778.47$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.171,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Passaro36c776.93$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.311,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tabilo65c765.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.451,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Tabilo39c749.25$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+93.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Tabilo72c734.77$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7720748.3%100 W · 107 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade7…6a55backed Tabilo71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.233658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c06…53bcbacked Passaro59c681.36$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Tabilo70c650$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1958143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tabilo65c632$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.841,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…bd29backed Tabilo75c626.87$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.876354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Tabilo60c608.48$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0461953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Tabilo33c598.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.5365652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aff…5f17backed Tabilo66c589.04$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Tabilo64c534.98$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5912861.7%79 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Tabilo53c533.14$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3210348.5%50 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Passaro32c517$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.776,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Passaro31c504.63$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.321,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Passaro32c500$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Passaro20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Tabilo46c500$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26818636%67 W · 119 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Passaro32c499.36$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.242,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Tabilo62c494.52$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9214456.3%81 W · 63 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Passaro22c487.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.513923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Tabilo70c464.04$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.618863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Passaro33c454.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Passaro20c452.78$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8844229.6%131 W · 311 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaed…8479backed Passaro48c448.61$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.335255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Passaro39c435.9$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9752037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Tabilo69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.786869.1%47 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Passaro58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Passaro48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.