UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e05ac354820a7f24ccfb167daad7e123a4617cecf14aa3a63bbdad3a827193d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marwan Rahikiof Harry Hardwick, Marwan Rahiki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $418,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 40,850$12,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,254.98 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 32,000$23,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,321.57 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 31,530$8,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,197.81 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 22,887$16,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,762.21 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Marwan Rahiki | 78c | 19,000$14,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,094.06 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 18,505$13,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,011.4 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Harry Hardwick | 1c | 15,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 11,207$7,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,388.6 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Harry Hardwick | 28c | 10,000$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…02b2backed Harry Hardwick | 32c | 9,083$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Harry Hardwick | 27c | 7,198$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.41 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Harry Hardwick | 25c | 7,046$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.7 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Harry Hardwick | 29c | 7,000$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 5,704$4,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.56 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Harry Hardwick | 18c | 4,676$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.24 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 4,041$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.76 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 3,900$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Harry Hardwick | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 2,900$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.93 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Harry Hardwick | 22c | 2,788$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.7 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 2,683$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.94 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 2,397$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.3 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 2,180$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.5 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 2,100$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Marwan Rahiki | 66c | 2,083$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.22 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 2,059$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Harry Hardwick | 31c | 2,020$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Harry Hardwick | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Harry Hardwick | 8c | 2,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Harry Hardwick | 29c | 2,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Harry Hardwick | 24c | 1,907$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.66 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 1,830$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.82 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Harry Hardwick | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 1,710$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Marwan Rahiki | 66c | 1,587$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.5 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Marwan Rahiki | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Harry Hardwick | 30c | 1,343$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 1,316$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.79 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Harry Hardwick | 27c | 1,227$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.08 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…9ae0backed Harry Hardwick | 33c | 1,204$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 1,186$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Harry Hardwick | 4c | 1,152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Harry Hardwick | 27c | 1,144$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Harry Hardwick | 31c | 1,131$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Harry Hardwick | 8c | 1,109$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Harry Hardwick | 28c | 1,102$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Marwan Rahiki | 71c | 1,100$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Harry Hardwick | 28c | 1,091$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.55 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Harry Hardwick | 28c | 1,055$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.05 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Harry Hardwick | 29c | 1,025$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Harry Hardwick | 29c | 1,022$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.89 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Harry Hardwick | 27c | 1,011$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Harry Hardwick | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d2c1backed Marwan Rahiki | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b068backed Harry Hardwick | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked Harry Hardwick | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Marwan Rahiki | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.27 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Marwan Rahiki | 66c | 974.67$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.39 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Marwan Rahiki | 71c | 968$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.72 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Marwan Rahiki | 69c | 900$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked Harry Hardwick | 19c | 894$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Harry Hardwick | 12c | 870$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…3e5abacked Harry Hardwick | 2c | 866.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…0f4abacked Harry Hardwick | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 846$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Harry Hardwick | 29c | 846$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Marwan Rahiki | 68c | 833.58$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.07 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 822.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Marwan Rahiki | 69c | 799.99$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 796.54$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Harry Hardwick | 33c | 789.27$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…0e8cbacked Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 763.89$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Harry Hardwick | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Harry Hardwick | 32c | 736$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…8667backed Marwan Rahiki | 69c | 682$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 642.39$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.89 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 609.46$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…b1a9backed Harry Hardwick | 28c | 607.14$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Harry Hardwick | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…737ebacked Harry Hardwick | 8c | 573.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Marwan Rahiki | 71c | 561.82$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 538.46$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 520$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Harry Hardwick | 26c | 508.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Harry Hardwick | 17c | 508.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Marwan Rahiki | 75c | 501.31$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Harry Hardwick | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…dedabacked Harry Hardwick | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…02f9backed Harry Hardwick | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…c3f0backed Marwan Rahiki | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Marwan Rahiki | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…4af3backed Marwan Rahiki | 73c | 496.05$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…a67abacked Harry Hardwick | 4c | 484.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Harry Hardwick | 19c | 480.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.