TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes31c3,577$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10063414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No60c2,086$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.361070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes11c1,603$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7710330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes20c1,424$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9823321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c1,175$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,101$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.312,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1583…e8b0backed Yes39c1,054$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes37c1,049$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.5430714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c1,016$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.262,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes5c1,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes6c975.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4824710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61b…85cabacked No56c894.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.86560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes10c835$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.25922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+185.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No20c792$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.028320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes25c744.66$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.821,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes23c703.38$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7312213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed No75c684.78$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes8c679.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No78c615.48$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.412972.4%21 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes7c583.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0712114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes18c555.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.251827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes18c551.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6211421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c499.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No16c450$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.3516969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes9c414.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.284920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes11c413.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.141718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes16c412$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.463315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…2eacbacked Yes9c404.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c402.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes17c401.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2240016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c370$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c365.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.591,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes8c364.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c357.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5852619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No9c357.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.082128.6%6 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+299.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c356.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3578811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes6c350$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0526516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes18c341.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…f4dfbacked Yes45c312.38$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbd…2bfbbacked Yes35c309.31$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1b…a02fbacked Yes42c301.76$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd379…87a8backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes42c280$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcaf…11dabacked Yes45c268.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes46c263$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No75c259.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.463762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…6be5backed No60c256.76$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f9…603dbacked No64c255.15$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+87.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes19c254$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.36714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes40c243.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…9dcbbacked Yes6c242.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes6c230.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17c5…7c9fbacked No59c214.2$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.824100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5f…1201backed No55c212.38$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No58c210$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.510335.9%37 W · 66 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+108%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255612.5%7 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid+25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5daf…ffadbacked No55c200.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes35c194.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0343933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No18c193$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.542128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0e…d99bbacked No56c191.91$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…25a0backed No57c187.88$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdd…75c4backed No58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.63345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c179.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8808…164fbacked No54c179.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes6c172.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4322824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x518b…cf8abacked No57c149.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes31c147.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.062040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked No60c147.15$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.521330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes12c143.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6333027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes13c142.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.218618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes20c136.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.458916.9%15 W · 74 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes9c131.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.17478.5%4 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe183…3e16backed No60c130$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.98053.8%43 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes23c129.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c28…1041backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No78c107.49$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x411b…a821backed No66c105.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes24c102.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9786…b15cbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477b…7b63backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409828.6%28 W · 70 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7023…b538backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d96…f714backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2796…e282backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c99.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes18c87.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5441220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1e…ca35backed No61c83.61$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes40c68.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.574928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1669…4641backed Yes40c61.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.72825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No79c60.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.919058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x548a…b2ffbacked No54c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed No57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6319527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.