TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes6c5,505$304 inLost-$303.567915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes2c2,350$40 inLost-$40.215045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,204$11 inLost-$11.1780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes8c2,143$163 inLost-$162.861,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,911$34 inLost-$34.432,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes5c1,780$89 inLost-$89.3734714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c1,350$39 inLost-$38.9512213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes1c1,186$13 inLost-$12.810330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c1,147$71 inLost-$71.182,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes4c1,143$41 inLost-$41.3724710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,096$15 inLost-$15.162727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes9c867.26$80 inLost-$80.2823321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes9c792.42$71 inLost-$71.1113315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes10c788.87$77 inLost-$77.19419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-32%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes11c669.46$71 inLost-$714017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c637.17$41 inLost-$40.534916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes7c551.99$41 inLost-$40.9311421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c527.99$15 inLost-$14.981,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fa…8135backed Yes7c498.88$37 inLost-$37.31421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes7c412$30 inLost-$29.653315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes4c383.3$14 inLost-$14.2859225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked Yes7c277.78$20 inLost-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c259.99$22 inLost-$22.52114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes9c254.42$23 inLost-$23.26714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f1…de68backed Yes5c241.92$13 inLost-$13.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c9c…da44backed Yes7c230$16 inLost-$16.312114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa532…cc03backed Yes10c228.07$22 inLost-$22.241338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c217.84$13 inLost-$12.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c213.81$14 inLost-$13.730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes9c170.91$15 inLost-$1541718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes12c164$20 inLost-$204820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes9c141.86$13 inLost-$13.1551018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes12c108$13 inLost-$12.642359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No79c17.29$14 inWon+$3.6623541.3%97 W · 138 L-29.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.