Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1936ec086818a5c4bb3df30c8239f6fa248b635a1dde19ac7fde3239a29bd3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,994$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,975$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,749$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,468$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,170$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 20c | 845.26$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 4c | 835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 6c | 786.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 23c | 664.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 551.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 4c | 463.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 425.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 412$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 16c | 395$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 373.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 79c | 363.71$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 362.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 16c | 259.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 7c | 258$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 20c | 252.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 251.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 71c | 238.59$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…9ba4backed Yes | 14c | 219.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 216$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 204.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 8c | 172.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…ddc8backed Yes | 8c | 153.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3118backed Yes | 21c | 132.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 11c | 108.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 91.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…2aa5backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d8…c3efbacked Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 84.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 24c | 83.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…bcbcbacked Yes | 20c | 75.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…12ecbacked Yes | 48c | 62.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 44.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…978dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 32%32 W · 68 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.