TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,490 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,475$35 inLost-$35.032,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes1c2,678$14 inLost-$13.631827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,524$15 inLost-$14.8280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c1,510$42 inLost-$41.5512213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes11c993.51$104 inLost-$104.423321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes1c870.84$11 inLost-$10.8910330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes11c867.54$99 inLost-$98.937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes6c584.6$38 inLost-$37.811,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes8c551.99$46 inLost-$46.3711421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes8c412$31 inLost-$30.933315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes7c398.37$26 inLost-$26.16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes5c373.29$18 inLost-$17.8259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c243.29$15 inLost-$15.324916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c199.98$19 inLost-$18.72114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c179.04$17 inLost-$16.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f1…de68backed Yes8c170.43$13 inLost-$13.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes12c146.51$17 inLost-$17.322718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4434…54b8backed Yes9c120.74$10 inLost-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes10c108.56$10 inLost-$10.38825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes10c108.5$10 inLost-$10.3279735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes13c86$11 inLost-$11.2351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7928…f432backed Yes17c73.53$12 inLost-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.