TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Meta dip to $620 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c6,646$4,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.8926237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes29c4,068$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.521,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes45c2,695$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.4660229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes53c1,991$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.3199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No69c1,484$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.696361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed Yes1c1,440$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes44c1,323$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.434146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c1,102$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.124168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes7c1,052$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.182540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67f1…139bbacked Yes48c797.1$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes32c767.21$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.945335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3db…7b1ebacked No78c670$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes37c615.4$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.023426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes35c564.47$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.247726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes17c536.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6816248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes51c499.85$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3281240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked No52c459$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No68c444.68$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No65c443.7$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9615947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c404.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.771,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c391.63$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2216418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked No72c382.3$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.662231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc19…eaffbacked Yes31c357.85$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes3c347.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+88.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes52c339.01$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.723148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Yes54c335.69$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.41963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c316.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No51c300$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No69c284.31$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.146150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No36c264.36$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.512871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcae0…9f81backed No48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c230$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.43450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c229.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1122129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes5c227.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked No68c221.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes32c213.6$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.621,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c202.5$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No60c187.62$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.741250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes48c184.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Yes25c180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes37c175$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Yes35c167.28$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.371931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes33c167.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5118853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc55…b21dbacked No76c160.05$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.132450%12 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No77c145.71$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked No54c141.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes34c134.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.767522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes42c127.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c110.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7919934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c110.76$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3917049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes38c109$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes25c106$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-69.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes27c104.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-81.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No76c104.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes38c101.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes27c101.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.656256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a1c…e455backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…aa37backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…6be5backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c55…8e08backed Yes43c99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes42c88.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0570…8cc6backed No54c86.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No77c76.96$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7823245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed Yes51c75.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No69c71.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1424356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4edd…4312backed No73c68.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked Yes52c64.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.771625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fa6…ef88backed Yes29c63.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c3…b5e5backed No62c59.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf176…8d2dbacked No49c58.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes27c58.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4919419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb2c…ff35backed No54c56.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…7db3backed No55c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8607…f4d1backed No38c55.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.724100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84a0…63a4backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+126.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed No48c49.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.791747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa05…a764backed No79c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.372045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+539.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf499…8bc8backed No62c42.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes25c41.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No71c40.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x488b…8ac0backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f53…3b01backed Yes39c39.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x554b…4719backed No62c38.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a92…6da5backed Yes39c37.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe2…42d4backed No69c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.01944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick69cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed No37c34.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+132.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes54c33.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.941741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8328…935fbacked No58c32.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.77068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb384…6debbacked Yes65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.