Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta reach $730 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222682ea835daef9bd5e0878414f1805805228dd980c248334f135b9069c163c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 66c | 2,166$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.93 | 1,327 | 46.9%623 W · 704 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 38c | 973.85$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.7 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 36c | 672.64$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.31 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…7666backed Yes | 25c | 512$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed No | 78c | 433.29$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 380$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 286$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…aee4backed No | 35c | 261$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…769fbacked No | 35c | 255$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b6…4a3ebacked No | 35c | 251$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…4dd8backed No | 35c | 249$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…b2f7backed No | 35c | 237$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63b…1343backed No | 35c | 233$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 209.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 74c | 156.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.57 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 21c | 106.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…72c3backed Yes | 65c | 98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…2e83backed Yes | 65c | 98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…5808backed Yes | 65c | 97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…8130backed Yes | 65c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…06f8backed Yes | 65c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee0…e4bebacked Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…7056backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…0ac2backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1be…7426backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…ac80backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf053…fa0cbacked Yes | 65c | 91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…7a0fbacked Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…59e8backed Yes | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…4008backed Yes | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…8650backed Yes | 65c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…7d43backed Yes | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 73c | 79.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1,791 | 49.1%880 W · 911 L | +143.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 22c | 57.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 61c | 55.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…d02ebacked Yes | 35c | 51.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 74c | 49.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 44c | 28.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 47c | 28.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta reach $730 in February?this page
- Will Meta dip to $540 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $570 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $600 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $770 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $810 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $860 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.