Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta dip to $640 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10cd69c4a92d6816ab51f0ca73143228c0c2d844c7be7ef947ace58059559991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,857$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 47c | 2,522$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 49c | 1,485$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.03 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 62c | 796.51$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.23 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 595$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.33 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 404.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 400$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 54c | 313.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 4c | 283.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 58c | 229.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 67c | 197$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 47c | 142.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 72c | 139.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…5545backed Yes | 23c | 88.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 22c | 80.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 56c | 73.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 33c | 56.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 53c | 43.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…139bbacked Yes | 68c | 35.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 43c | 32.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 60c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…c27dbacked Yes | 62c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 54c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 25.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b943backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta dip to $640 in February?this page
- Will Meta dip to $540 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $570 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $600 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $680 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $730 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $770 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $810 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $860 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.