Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta reach $770 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a47eb02c679c231519529b27c5bd6d306f1461abe99ff01e1caa21a98a2f94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8328…935fbacked Yes | 4c | 806.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…139bbacked Yes | 5c | 231.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb940…0527backed Yes | 34c | 191$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…20eebacked Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…93c3backed Yes | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…66a1backed Yes | 34c | 168$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…9373backed Yes | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…710bbacked Yes | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…51ddbacked Yes | 34c | 164$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…b9cebacked Yes | 34c | 164$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…50c3backed Yes | 34c | 157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a74fbacked No | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c6…0086backed No | 66c | 94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…b3a8backed No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e23…e3d0backed No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe104…398fbacked No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…59eebacked No | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…080abacked No | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…8ec5backed No | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6616…a4cbbacked No | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…ad90backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…217abacked No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc32…c03ebacked No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…ce0fbacked No | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…1adcbacked No | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…74e4backed No | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…e6f7backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 17c | 76.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…a03fbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta reach $770 in February?this page
- Will Meta dip to $540 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $570 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $600 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $730 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $810 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $860 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.