Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta dip to $600 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c9d8b6da8652ac5cdb593f38cf4e26b68bb2433df085bd89754f33611e8ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 26c | 2,494$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.47 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 76c | 1,451$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.91 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,078$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 64c | 900$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 876$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 67c | 794.89$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 73c | 794.5$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 78c | 687.59$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 568$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 399.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 68c | 382.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 286.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 267.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf32…5159backed Yes | 27c | 223$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 215.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…cc83backed Yes | 15c | 192.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 169.94$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…f4d1backed No | 65c | 152.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 77c | 134.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 74c | 127.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 19c | 109.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 103.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 99.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 77.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 74c | 76.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…f503backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Yes | 17c | 72.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 74c | 69.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…8c59backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…d0e9backed No | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta dip to $600 in February?this page
- Will Meta dip to $540 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $570 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in February?No won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in February?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $730 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $770 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $810 in February?No won
- Will Meta reach $860 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.