Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505e7b8bf6f7938683ce3d6a7b4dbfd139fe49b3b655065847de5b921e68acca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jong | 39c | 3,154$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.29 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Rublev | 65c | 2,435$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.81 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…2e69backed Rublev | 67c | 1,486$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.87 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…b910backed Rublev | 65c | 1,081$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.28 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jong | 36c | 992.76$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.97 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jong | 36c | 979.52$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.9 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Jong | 36c | 819.73$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.86 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fd…abf9backed Rublev | 64c | 750$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jong | 35c | 622$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.7 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Jong | 34c | 618.45$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.22 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Jong | 35c | 504.26$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Rublev | 52c | 452.02$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.48 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jong | 36c | 447.18$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…a8adbacked Rublev | 65c | 308.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Rublev | 63c | 300$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2cf9backed Jong | 50c | 280.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Rublev | 65c | 242.77$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jong | 34c | 215.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Rublev | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Rublev | 50c | 198.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Jong | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…3a6abacked Rublev | 63c | 161.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…892bbacked Rublev | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…e82bbacked Rublev | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Rublev | 68c | 148.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…403ebacked Rublev | 68c | 147.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…c983backed Rublev | 68c | 147.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…bb45backed Rublev | 63c | 126.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jong | 26c | 119.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Rublev | 63c | 118.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jong | 36c | 87.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Rublev | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rublev | 16c | 83.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Jong | 37c | 80.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Rublev | 67c | 74.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Jong | 39c | 69.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Rublev | 22c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…0af8backed Rublev | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…f749backed Rublev | 66c | 45.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Rublev | 65c | 43.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jong | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Rublev | 64c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Rublev | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Rublev | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)this page
- Qatar Open: Jesper de Jong vs Andrey RublevRublev won
- Set 1 Winner: Jong vs RublevRublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.