Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $80?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446479034b1e058cd842912b123ae25c69bc83400d1d03b789ab81491cac2c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf94f…78d7backed Yes | 3c | 8,061$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +361.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 7c | 4,801$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 11c | 3,645$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,249$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 750$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 433.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa190…c7b0backed Yes | 3c | 333.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 326.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 324.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c7…455cbacked Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes | 20c | 293.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 26c | 250$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes | 18c | 248.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 226.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 79c | 218.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…eb70backed Yes | 34c | 159.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 12c | 152.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 127$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 90.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 19c | 63.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 36c | 31.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 68c | 30.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…a529backed No | 80c | 25.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 73c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $80?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $60?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $70?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.