Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e3d0801925705245f83b04806ee6a4296972c373b57488c9d7b4c3980b5794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 13c | 3,443$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.49 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…21ddbacked No | 2c | 3,422$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,841$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,334$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed No | 2c | 1,214$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…b2b6backed Yes | 71c | 1,055$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…05b3backed No | 3c | 871.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 3c | 563$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 441.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 9c | 432.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 6c | 333.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 34c | 270.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 258$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 66c | 219.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 34c | 205.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 176.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 64c | 155.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 38c | 139.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 56c | 123$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 118.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…c9d5backed No | 66c | 96.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 80c | 91.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 39c | 86.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…73e5backed Yes | 38c | 52.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…777cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 76c | 46.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5428backed No | 59c | 21.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.