Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5864220f3901e887aea65f30d39fb9a7e80204c6a409269c4db54da6a4cae604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 11c | 1,525$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 9c | 1,441$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 1,150$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 986.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 11c | 907.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 756.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 12c | 728.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 13c | 483.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 13c | 339.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 11c | 325.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 8c | 304.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 12c | 273.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 12c | 219.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 17c | 181.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…8713backed Yes | 10c | 161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 10c | 160.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 27c | 152.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 14c | 144.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 12c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…19ccbacked Yes | 11c | 104.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…f8c4backed Yes | 14c | 71.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.