Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cc6619c99fe4ed8fc83a5e04d31888dd5d57d97f3f1773ec0272c22ca757d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 1,029$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 496.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 336.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 318.96$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.56 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 80c | 282.49$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 34c | 270.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 262.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…b159backed Yes | 54c | 173.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 32c | 172.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 169.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 168.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 163.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 156.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 51c | 146.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 69c | 108.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 68c | 104.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 24c | 99.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 98.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 42c | 97.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 34c | 96.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 29c | 92.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 85.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 30c | 81.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 75c | 80.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 80.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 24c | 75.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 71.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 70c | 70.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 21c | 69.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 62c | 67.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 57c | 66.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 65.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 39c | 63.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 65c | 62.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 62.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 63c | 61.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 61.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 20c | 60.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…e7a0backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 28c | 59.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 58.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 33c | 57.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 34c | 48.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 37c | 46.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 26c | 46.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 45.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 68c | 43.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 42.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 37c | 41.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 36c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…f143backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 39.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked Yes | 74c | 39.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 38.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 67c | 38.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 57c | 33.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…0d5dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 50c | 31.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 31.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 78c | 30.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked No | 64c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 65c | 29.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…632abacked No | 65c | 28.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 27.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 53c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 23.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 59c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 20.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 62c | 19.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 66c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 14.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…ec67backed No | 77c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.