Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7747c64c418f6a8058e5a470889d9d5417fc57b0872d54fb10abbfbc67fff692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 972.88$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 53c | 576.67$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.7 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 46c | 495.31$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 37c | 418.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.51 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 50c | 399.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed Yes | 6c | 384.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 371.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 14c | 357.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 319.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…9f31backed Yes | 6c | 288.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 248.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 244.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 14c | 240.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 14c | 238.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 14c | 229.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 64c | 208.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 17c | 185.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 63c | 183.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 178.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed No | 58c | 165.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 160.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 60c | 146.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 133.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 127.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 12c | 112.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 58c | 105.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 48c | 103.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 13c | 100.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 44c | 99.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 16c | 99.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 99.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…b19fbacked No | 75c | 97.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 84.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c329backed Yes | 21c | 83.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 49c | 80.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 13c | 80.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…91c4backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed No | 48c | 78.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 17c | 71.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 78c | 69.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 68.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 64.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 18c | 55.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 29c | 55.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes | 19c | 54.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 43c | 46.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 46c | 45.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 23c | 45.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 56c | 45.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 46c | 39.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 47c | 38.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 74c | 38.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 39c | 38.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 34c | 36.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed No | 50c | 32.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…0660backed Yes | 60c | 31.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 45c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…691abacked No | 43c | 27.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…632abacked No | 55c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…5e50backed Yes | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed No | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 55c | 22.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 21.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.