Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6d3cc6a3855f11238405dceb7c8a5ac3772b43c1d34fa286be0a39ca931b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 63c | 1,295$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.76 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,191$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 75c | 851.79$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 3c | 781.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 721.87$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 33c | 582.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.36 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 70c | 548.23$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.04 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 508.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 7c | 485.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 52c | 330.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.57 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 313.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 308.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 50c | 308.13$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…f81bbacked Yes | 11c | 286.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 264.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 21c | 252.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 53c | 243.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 58c | 237.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 30c | 227.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 50c | 175.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 19c | 168.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 155.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 33c | 151.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 58c | 150.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 48c | 146.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 57c | 140.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 14c | 137.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 128.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 50c | 128.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 48c | 128.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 79c | 122.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 120.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 113.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 112.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 23c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 23c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…b159backed Yes | 43c | 109.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 44c | 98.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 97.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 96.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 51c | 95.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 14c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 25c | 92.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 53c | 91.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 64c | 91.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 53c | 89.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 48c | 85.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 82.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 50c | 81.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 39c | 81.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 43c | 78.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…4e2bbacked Yes | 57c | 74.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 65c | 74.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 59c | 72.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 71c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 44c | 64.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 63.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 16c | 63.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 60c | 61.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 61c | 61.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…5447backed Yes | 62c | 61.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 46c | 56.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 37c | 54.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…b19dbacked Yes | 40c | 53.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 27c | 51.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 47c | 49.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 51c | 48.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 58c | 47.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 47.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 53c | 47.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 47.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 49c | 45.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…c277backed Yes | 52c | 45.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 57c | 44.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 66c | 43.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 56c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 52c | 42.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…211dbacked No | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 60c | 41.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 50c | 39.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 38.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 47c | 37.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 47c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 34.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 51c | 33.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 55c | 32.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.