TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pegulaof Pegula, Keys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2727…eef4backed Keys19c11,040$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.4119134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Keys39c8,179$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.771,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Pegula60c7,284$4,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.6927063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pegula60c6,615$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6465955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Keys40c6,250$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50018237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Keys40c4,375$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75035247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Keys39c4,249$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.7225428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Pegula61c4,098$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.3644754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Pegula61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5604560%27 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pegula60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Keys28c3,907$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.412949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Pegula61c3,289$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.811668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Keys39c3,006$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.523935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pegula77c2,629$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.488,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Keys39c2,358$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.031,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pegula73c2,114$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.482,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Keys39c2,048$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.615228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Keys40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Pegula61c1,637$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.984673.9%34 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Keys40c1,472$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.898240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pegula71c1,166$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.073,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Pegula62c1,041$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.6881938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Pegula61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Keys38c990$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.727733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Keys25c984.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2814225.4%36 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Keys21c909.6$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pegula77c817.8$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Keys40c773$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.231332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Pegula62c722.52$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.562650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d1…40c3backed Keys13c721.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.793312.1%4 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-80.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pegula74c715.95$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.566,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Keys5c702.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.672,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Keys5c686.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.482,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Keys14c652.59$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.762,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Keys33c585.59$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5735944.8%161 W · 198 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee6…6887backed Keys40c584$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb6…96d1backed Pegula61c557.38$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.3846565.6%305 W · 160 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pegula75c528.34$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.14,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Pegula61c513$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.079242.4%39 W · 53 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Pegula75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1256553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Pegula80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10070465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Pegula60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Pegula80c487.28$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.482,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Keys17c470.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1411122.5%25 W · 86 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Keys23c468.4$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8371857.7%414 W · 304 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Keys25c458.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11328754%155 W · 132 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Keys8c400$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Pegula61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15658753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Keys13c379.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.411,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Pegula80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7010456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Keys38c328.95$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12537339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Pegula62c282.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.269955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa55…06c0backed Pegula61c279.51$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-55.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Keys26c266.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0431434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Pegula59c263.88$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.379546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Keys24c250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7512846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c7…4fcabacked Pegula61c244.26$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.263767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Keys40c244.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6922744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Keys41c241.46$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Keys42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc793…59ecbacked Keys36c230.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.12757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Keys40c222$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.86435.9%23 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Keys40c207.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.185425.9%14 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked Keys20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pegula58c188.55$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.157,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Keys25c170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56835.3%24 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Pegula61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9318957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Pegula62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2921454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6662…3503backed Keys40c160.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4fa…f25ebacked Keys40c160$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.817840.4%72 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…a505backed Keys41c146.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.921553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…33bfbacked Keys40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Pegula68c116.18$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1830750.5%155 W · 152 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf6b…9431backed Pegula61c104.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked Keys24c100.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3815751.6%81 W · 76 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe252…5f5abacked Pegula61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x812d…8f72backed Keys41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x532f…e626backed Keys35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Keys38c97.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.584032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Pegula60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3627344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Keys40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3549955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Pegula61c86.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7458359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Pegula60c85.6$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1740744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Keys40c83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.238048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fb…f935backed Pegula61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.976055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Pegula61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9794060.6%570 W · 370 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pegula61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9751849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…91fdbacked Keys40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.74434.1%15 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49bb…4d4cbacked Keys40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8616…cfbebacked Pegula61c71.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.813070%21 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Pegula61c66.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9936464.3%234 W · 130 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Pegula60c66.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Keys39c64.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6470…aac7backed Pegula61c57.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.381560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd5…0e20backed Keys40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Keys40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf881…f259backed Keys40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+50.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Keys24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed Pegula71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Pegula60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.