Poker · resolved market
Will Rampage win at Hustler Casino on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5358d55ffa9e8bb4e8b015938709388f6b79214d95bcfbcac9234309203c1d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc949…fa93backed No | 52c | 3,750$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 48c | 3,728$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…cd87backed Yes | 48c | 620.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 59c | 550$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 41c | 550$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 45c | 488.7$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed No | 54c | 464.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed No | 34c | 397.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 48c | 313.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…c10dbacked No | 33c | 305.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 51c | 300$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…1723backed Yes | 50c | 276.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 14c | 264.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…f2b3backed No | 53c | 205$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed No | 55c | 200.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…e282backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 182.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 169.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 61c | 121.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Yes | 49c | 113$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 97.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 48c | 86.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…704ebacked No | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…c514backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 53c | 52.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…7707backed No | 51c | 45.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…5a2abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…861ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…5d18backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.