TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Palantir dip to $126 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$499,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$492,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes33c6,100$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.191,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No65c5,124$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.113941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes53c2,878$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa438…8605backed Yes58c2,500$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed No46c1,841$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes50c1,225$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.1999038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes45c1,220$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.273212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-76.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f85…2b60backed Yes15c1,063$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes58c1,046$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2560229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No37c948.25$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.3356548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes73c941.58$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.611471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Yes57c723.05$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.851963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed Yes40c720$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes63c668.35$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.912871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe61a…cbc5backed Yes58c639.96$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c628.08$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.116949.1%83 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c614.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.264168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22226237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc19…eaffbacked Yes41c596.84$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed No46c540.91$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ab…f0a5backed No77c540.58$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes51c540.36$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c523.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41505.3%8 W · 142 L+0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes35c501.58$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5416248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed No42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5f1…0aa5backed No41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Yes60c437.86$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8960%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c351.94$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5422129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked No50c338.15$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked No40c308.94$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes54c281.11$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1124356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc95c…5e0bbacked Yes40c277$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes76c263.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200150%0 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c261.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c260.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c257.22$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes7c249.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed No52c224$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.452937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No63c220$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No56c215.84$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.322250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Yes47c213.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No23c212.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8719934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes24c208.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes43c200.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.815335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…7382backed No60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x467a…d768backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…f36fbacked No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes56c199.45$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.112236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe89d…57e4backed Yes41c196.85$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked Yes67c195.2$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.631625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes28c181.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.78633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336e…6d50backed No66c178.26$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3e…2755backed No77c176$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa3…7a1abacked Yes24c173.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90c…73debacked Yes40c162$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9c…bd91backed Yes40c160$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf3…2795backed Yes40c155$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x767f…58edbacked Yes40c153$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x113a…c561backed Yes40c151$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9d…5d14backed No42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43f…1c5dbacked Yes31c149.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No60c146.85$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3415947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes64c140$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No63c140$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd9…82a7backed Yes40c139$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes67c136.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8851…3f95backed Yes61c133.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5930%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes33c126$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.351323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d6e…670abacked Yes36c120.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed Yes65c120$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa8…9e75backed No20c112.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+412.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes36c111.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…0478backed No60c108$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5711…78bdbacked No60c104$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked No36c104$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+198.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f96…1744backed No60c103$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74eb…c78abacked No49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da8…9382backed No60c102$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes69c101$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832a…2b3ebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed No19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0704…fbd8backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec47…3f32backed No60c99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…a9bcbacked No60c99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…449cbacked No60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd272…0010backed No60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Yes49c97.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.151931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a9…1d29backed No60c97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd95b…61f7backed No60c97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes24c96.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.192718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes64c92.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.283148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes67c85.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6681240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes28c85.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2419419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.