Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir dip to $111 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb15dd90cd0376864bc06130d0a15793e8b56dfa1a195752037389bc93317834f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,363$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 1,080$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3012…5237backed Yes | 12c | 852.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 767$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 17c | 526.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 323.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed Yes | 16c | 318.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 68c | 258.21$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f0a5backed Yes | 29c | 181.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 28c | 165.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 24c | 147.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 119.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 36c | 110.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 16c | 89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 78.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 37c | 65.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 24c | 47.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…33fabacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir dip to $111 in February?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $126 in February?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $138 in February?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $147 in February?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $162 in February?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $168 in February?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $180 in February?No won
- Will Palantir reach $186 in February?No won
- Will Palantir reach $195 in February?No won
- Will Palantir reach $207 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.