Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660a7c610c09c36b0c7d67982a3ca9964a6480a4ef896ad0de8312da0e4a878d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 3c | 744.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 488.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 376.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 52c | 274.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.81 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 262.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 260$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 235.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 195.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 72c | 194.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 162.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 137.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 132.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 131.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 122.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 28c | 111.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 102.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 33c | 101.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 97.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 27c | 96.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 92.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 31c | 91.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 83.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 76.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 69.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 69.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 28c | 68.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 72c | 67.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 61.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 61.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 59.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…6421backed Yes | 29c | 59.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 72c | 59.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 74c | 58.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 30c | 55.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 49.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 31c | 46.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…457ebacked Yes | 28c | 46.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 27c | 45.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 44.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 72c | 40.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 39.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…9ef7backed No | 71c | 36.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 28c | 36.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 69c | 35.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 66c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 70c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 70c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…87edbacked No | 71c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 69c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…6366backed No | 72c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…3339backed No | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…5f98backed No | 76c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 14.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.