Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9404278f17d9f3ee9cc6c6bacb205243ffe70633064071b876e303a4e13b0f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,731$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 399.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 373.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 13c | 230.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 20c | 219.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 218.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 205.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 18c | 191.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 26c | 176.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 20c | 175.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 173.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 13c | 159.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked Yes | 20c | 132.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 27c | 131.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 123.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 8c | 119.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 24c | 106.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 92.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 12c | 87.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 84.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…adecbacked Yes | 15c | 80.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 23c | 80.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 79.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 37c | 62.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 80c | 61.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 18c | 59.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 57.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked Yes | 26c | 53.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 74c | 53.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 52.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 42.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 72c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.