TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50fc…935bbacked No0c3,408$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…1e16backed No62c586.98$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes74c336.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.678643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c314.07$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c305.37$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No16c291.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes41c265.16$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c254.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes56c234.01$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.232962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcc…b908backed No43c217.15$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.415549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No67c200.12$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6711659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c199.77$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes41c199.32$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes76c197.7$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6325549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No23c191.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5431542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes64c182.8$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6611331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No36c176.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.228,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes73c171.64$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes75c163.86$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.171,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c160.05$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No18c159.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5513453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No26c154.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6353525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c147.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.42,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes46c133.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6742469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes79c133.83$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No62c133$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0320958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes55c129.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.171,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c123.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.472,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No48c110.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe418…f304backed Yes65c110$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa998…6421backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked No64c96.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5414834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed Yes47c91.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9319772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No27c87.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4924768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c85.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes42c83.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1521142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac5…c9a6backed No34c79.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No47c78.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7754…278dbacked No28c77.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64230%0 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed Yes74c73.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0619753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d17…41a5backed No23c72.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No56c72.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6517…573fbacked No48c70.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.824452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes38c65.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes47c64.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes46c64.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4210258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70f…4306backed No59c62.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.811233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.819449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes48c59.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2720750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes40c54.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9640739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No46c54.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No38c54.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.861,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No57c51.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5127464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes54c50.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes42c49.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.814835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes70c49.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.684233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes77c49.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes48c49.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6811223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes67c49.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.261,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes58c49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.588531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked No62c48.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9911938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No40c47.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.144147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No67c46.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9457038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes54c45.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No60c43.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.874456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes77c40.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7944…8861backed Yes71c40.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.871258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed Yes61c40.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.847871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7453…aee6backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad3…bbccbacked No36c39.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes44c39.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.17846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes49c39.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.956358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes69c39.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.114,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e3…fcacbacked No62c38.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.041662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No53c38.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5819547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed No50c38.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.156553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x171c…942dbacked No53c37.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes56c37.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.391540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No59c37.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.075349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d45…020fbacked Yes38c36.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.481631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e93…9ef7backed No52c35.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+88.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes49c34.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes49c34.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes37c34.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.853630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes50c33.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1223241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes47c32.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7293…98e8backed Yes45c31.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.591618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes57c31.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.471,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd835…59babacked Yes53c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.571643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c28…0d2abacked No57c30.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.292334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No38c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.315937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes58c29.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4932352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes73c29.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.134067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa972…40c2backed No51c29.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No63c28.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5597…c6fbbacked Yes67c28.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.333066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.