Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4edecc15d6623e5028bfb9cf19de7b13efbdc5e45455d2dbf50c1c430093f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 952.53$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 67c | 514.14$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 6c | 442.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 403.66$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 369.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 37c | 354.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 73c | 332.05$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 332.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 301.3$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 44c | 283.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 10c | 276.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 272.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 258.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 60c | 227.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 39c | 225.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 73c | 192.39$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 41c | 185.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 52c | 174.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 70c | 174.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 168.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 64c | 161.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 159.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 61c | 159.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…4306backed No | 69c | 154.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 60c | 150.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 34c | 144.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 137.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 121.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 62c | 112.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 56c | 109.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 74c | 105.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 49c | 100.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 74c | 95.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 58c | 91.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 45c | 86.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 65c | 82.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 45c | 78.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 42c | 74.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 44c | 74.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 45c | 72.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 71.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 34c | 69.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 56c | 68.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 48c | 67.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 65.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 63.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…858abacked Yes | 66c | 57.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 57.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 41c | 56.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 43c | 53.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 42c | 51.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 66c | 49.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 42c | 48.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 50c | 47.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 46.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 47c | 46.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 34c | 45.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 30c | 43.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 42.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 38c | 38.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 40c | 37.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 41c | 36.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 61c | 36.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…ea14backed Yes | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 46c | 35.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 35.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 34.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 44c | 34.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…68e5backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked No | 52c | 31.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 55c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 30.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 46c | 30.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 50c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 45c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…c740backed No | 56c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 50c | 26.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…b22abacked No | 42c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…e7a1backed No | 69c | 25.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.