TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c952.53$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…1e16backed No67c514.14$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No6c442.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No43c403.66$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No45c369.46$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No37c354.72$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes73c332.05$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8325549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c332.04$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes57c301.3$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.434,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No44c283.53$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cde…b02bbacked No10c276.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.551566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c272.22$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes66c258.52$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes60c227.72$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.469333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes39c225.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.058417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…0927backed Yes73c192.39$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.492665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No41c185.38$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3616548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes52c174.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.612962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes70c174.68$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c168.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.777,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfab…602dbacked Yes64c161.57$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.624337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c159.21$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes61c159.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.431,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe70f…4306backed No69c154.47$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes60c150.04$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes34c144.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0142469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No52c137.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.571,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c121.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.352,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes62c112.85$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3760236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6517…573fbacked No56c109.23$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.174452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6deb…f584backed Yes74c105.13$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.782623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes49c100.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5921142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a8…d879backed Yes74c95.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.042630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes58c91.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3237056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes45c86.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.397445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes65c82.03$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.725449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes45c78.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1318740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No42c74.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3217555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes44c74.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4915545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked No45c72.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.794337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c71.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes34c69.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7226344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes56c68.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2611044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes48c67.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.571540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes57c65.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.051,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes46c63.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2317138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b6…858abacked Yes66c57.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes42c57.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3256131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes41c56.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.572147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No43c53.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes42c51.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.899750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ea…a65fbacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711423.7%27 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No66c49.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6719753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes42c48.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0126434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes61c48.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.911,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02e4…416fbacked No50c47.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes44c47.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4339541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes39c46.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6441733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes47c46.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.683661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes34c45.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.828432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7453…aee6backed Yes30c43.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.123551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes32c42.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes76c40.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6230046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No38c38.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-76.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes40c37.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1125447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes41c36.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9618242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes41c36.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.858436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes54c36.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0144147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes61c36.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x532a…ea14backed Yes79c35.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes46c35.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c35.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0298160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No57c34.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes44c34.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1713943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61b8…e749backed Yes58c32.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.674658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes62c32.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3116634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd72f…68e5backed Yes44c32.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.02825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked No52c31.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes55c31.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes37c30.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.631435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes49c30.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6540525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59ee…b6aabacked No46c30.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.191435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7234…e457backed No50c30.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7957232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No45c29.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes66c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8627463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes52c28.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7119449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c4…c740backed No56c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes50c26.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.036358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ea…b22abacked No42c25.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d3…e7a1backed No69c25.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c25.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.062,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.