TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c451.6$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes5c386.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0451321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes42c292.18$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.364,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c271.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.381,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cde…b02bbacked Yes7c255.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.431566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes38c243.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.261,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c235.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.571,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes36c229.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked No60c185.84$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.348417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No69c184.36$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.411,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c179.29$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.128,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes39c177.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes11c167.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.713511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c163.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.835,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c161.5$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed Yes14c135.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4928954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c126.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes12c126.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d8…7afebacked Yes10c107.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes26c102.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c95.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.372,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes41c95.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.152128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes43c94.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x080a…0307backed No62c91.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes21c90.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.861,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c89.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x914b…0927backed Yes37c87.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.812665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x247f…1aa9backed Yes42c86.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes38c76.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0318740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes39c70.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8721142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0409…457ebacked Yes34c68.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes38c65.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9832830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes40c61.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3828648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes38c57.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.89750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes37c56.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8556131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes39c54.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c54.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.853,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes41c54.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.081,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes38c52.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17b3…cf70backed No57c48.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.053066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70d3…2909backed Yes37c48.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.832825%7 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes29c47.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.818229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c47.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.364,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes43c45.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c43.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.472,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No62c42.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c41.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c40.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes30c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…8a7dbacked Yes39c38.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes34c37.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.73661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No60c36.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.848253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes38c36.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9322934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No63c35.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.131,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e3…fcacbacked No68c35.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes40c35.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.177846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes37c35.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.056827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes38c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes40c32.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No78c31.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9833450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No64c29.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa661…9d2ebacked No61c28.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No58c28.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b5…0509backed No62c27.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No61c27.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes40c27.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0426434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes41c27.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b7…81f4backed No62c25.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e23…bedcbacked No62c24.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No64c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7425447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c23.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x171c…942dbacked No64c23.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.482045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No65c23.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0918242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed No66c23.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8713943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed No66c23.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.848436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No61c20.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb11…73f2backed No61c20.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1937…ac3ebacked No63c19.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381050%5 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No67c19.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4726458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No62c18.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.234961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No59c18.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No60c17.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.059161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed No68c16.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4314332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No69c16.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2829770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.