TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c802.68$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No50c675.73$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.3939966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No46c452.6$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.982,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes47c350.35$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.041,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes51c342.43$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.481,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c294.73$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.444,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c219.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.211,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed Yes71c219.54$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.721662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No27c202.48$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9120958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed Yes43c188.43$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.191942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes74c182.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No10c136.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes39c130.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4121142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes40c112.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes49c110.86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.628164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c108.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No18c107.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.674,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c101.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes48c98.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c95.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No50c87.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.81540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes62c75.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c70.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.845,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes57c70.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.284744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No59c70.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.071,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.322,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes35c67.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7213322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes73c66.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd66f…66f8backed No39c63.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.831154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes34c60.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.39750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.437644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes67c57.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes52c56.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5219449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.568432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No39c54.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No51c51.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.425850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes51c48.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.014129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes37c47.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No62c46.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c45.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.013,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No54c43.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.533450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes68c43.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.651,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed No44c43.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No48c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked No50c39.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes75c39.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8830046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No63c39.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6837533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No47c39.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.482,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed No60c37.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6212560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1793…4215backed Yes52c35.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes52c35.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.961643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes61c34.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4431062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No53c34.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No47c33.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.053850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…e457backed No51c33.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.132630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes44c32.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9611436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No64c31.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.054456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes56c30.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7432352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.354154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes49c29.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.289331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes53c28.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.571,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed Yes54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9615749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe70f…4306backed No67c27.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No49c25.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ee…b6aabacked No53c25.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddfa…014fbacked Yes43c24.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.172055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No49c24.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c23.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69a…90f7backed Yes43c23.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.442055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c1…d8a6backed No65c23.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes51c23.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.314025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No53c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes55c22.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9725344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No49c22.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0222675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No65c22.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4976371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No49c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.656265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No53c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0715937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1937…ac3ebacked No67c18.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411050%5 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes73c17.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No66c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.564961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.